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The shale phenomenon: fabulous miracle with a fatal flaw

The Christian Science Monitor -- Shales are stubborn, stingy, and impermeable. Their physics are torturous. The pore throats, or passageways, of some shales are barely bigger than a single methane molecule. Until very recently, trying to harvest gas from shale was like trying to breathe through Saran Wrap, an exhausting enterprise with no upside.

Today, for $5-10 million, you can drill and "frac" an excellent well that will initially produce 1,000 barrels, or 6 million cubic feet, a day.

But typically that well will age rapidly. Many good wells, not to mention the dogs, will be exhausted within 15 years. The decline rate of a shale well is breathtaking, a Wile E. Coyote-like plunge from cliff top to oblivion. In the Bakken and Haynesville plays, production can fall 80 percent within 24 months. By the end of four years,

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Submitted Feb 24, 2013 By: NOTSOGRN

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honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,580 Points:1,605,520 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Feb 27, 2013 5:53:32 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse kkimes: indeed. We've tried that before with other sources and fell face first in the mud... didn't learn from that, did we?
drpepperTX Champion Author Texas Posts:8,929 Points:749,935 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Feb 25, 2013 9:33:29 PM Ignore drpepperTX Report Abuse nsdp, very good post pointing out the fatal flaws in this story.
pleinyeux All-Star Author Montreal Posts:765 Points:196,605 Joined:Oct 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:26:36 PM Ignore pleinyeux Report Abuse Time of miracles has gone long away ....
orphancarguyPE Champion Author PEI Posts:3,827 Points:730,990 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 8:45:26 PM Ignore orphancarguyPE Report Abuse Some very good documentation out there which documents beyond all the excited hype just how fast the drop off rate is. Unlike a Ponzi scheme, there is a possible return on investment on the positive side, but likely only at several times the current retain price... As well, with the 'as soon as you start' drop-off in production, there comes a point VERY quickly where all your capital is just going in to maintain a plateau of production, not to increase it by game-changing amounts.
jimgraham Champion Author Akron Posts:10,352 Points:1,976,585 Joined:Oct 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 8:05:39 PM Ignore jimgraham Report Abuse Waiting for the bubble collapse - not burst..
LetemEatCake Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:5,595 Points:1,201,860 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 7:08:15 PM Ignore LetemEatCake Report Abuse Excellent, well articulated theory on the future of fracking from a reliable source. My concerns are more along the lines of T42 and the toxic chemicals which result. I totally agree with what Kkimes said, "I hate to see the US put all our eggs in one basket." Good advice!
kkimes Champion Author Illinois Posts:1,590 Points:1,502,915 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 7:01:16 PM Ignore kkimes Report Abuse I hate to see the US put all our eggs in one basket. Fortunately, I won't be here any more when the crash comes.
teafortwo Champion Author Washington Posts:22,064 Points:1,381,840 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 4:12:16 PM Ignore teafortwo Report Abuse How could we possibly be exposed to the toxic chemicals used in fracking PDQBlues? GB oil & gas industry shills tell US all toxic chemicals are thousands of feet in the Earth. Still a bit of a mystery how the toxic chemicals get down there? And stay put? Do you think that is part of the oil & gas industry "trade secret" ? POOF Now you see it. Now you don't. No wonder the oil & gas industry says there's no good reason for US to know toxic chemical recipes. How could something we can not see possibly hurt US?
Jeff1944 Champion Author South Dakota Posts:4,217 Points:1,070,705 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 3:49:08 PM Ignore Jeff1944 Report Abuse All good things come to end; some sooner than later. It still is better than we did it. Otherwise some of the greenies may have frozen together in the dark! LOL!
PDQBlues Champion Author San Diego Posts:7,054 Points:1,444,325 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 3:31:16 PM Ignore PDQBlues Report Abuse A fatal flaw indeed, especially with the toxic materials used in fracking that will be fatal to those exposed to it.
md11capt Champion Author Denver Posts:3,553 Points:707,405 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 3:31:14 PM Ignore md11capt Report Abuse How bout that piece news Frackers? Another PR Job by BIG OIL.
YumaFellow Champion Author Arizona Posts:1,270 Points:618,595 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 3:27:35 PM Ignore YumaFellow Report Abuse This is a good article from a good source. The fracking boom is likely to have a short life even if its consequences will hang around for decades.
nsdp Champion Author San Antonio Posts:1,117 Points:47,190 Joined:Jun 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 1:44:05 PM Ignore nsdp Report Abuse Another ignorant story. Since Wall Street made Cash Flow king in the 80's operators have completed and operated their wells to maximize upfront profits and not prudent operations to maximize recovery. In the 1980's the typical well in the Permian basin drilled into the Ellenberger formation produced 1/2 of the recoverable hydrocarbons in 2 years and was depleted in 5-7 years. Welcome to the 20th Century. [Edited by: nsdp at 2/24/2013 1:44:54 PM EST]
hvyd1 All-Star Author Chicago Posts:805 Points:76,625 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 12:09:44 PM Ignore hvyd1 Report Abuse that was interesting
TXRanger09 Champion Author Dallas Posts:2,494 Points:888,210 Joined:May 2009	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 11:52:36 AM Ignore TXRanger09 Report Abuse Very interesting article by Randy Udall, a sustainable energy expert, is co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil – USA, Mr. Udall is brother to Sen. Mark Udall (D) of Colorado. e.
BurntOrange Champion Author Austin Posts:8,702 Points:1,578,855 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 11:13:04 AM Ignore BurntOrange Report Abuse dogs?
lpatti1 Champion Author Philadelphia Posts:10,181 Points:1,959,260 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:41:56 AM Ignore lpatti1 Report Abuse Someone has a gold mine for states?
nstrdnvstr Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:36,828 Points:3,980,955 Joined:May 2001	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:39:12 AM Ignore nstrdnvstr Report Abuse Keep on fracking, it creates much needed jobs.
Rhino8of8 Champion Author Wisconsin Posts:1,240 Points:371,165 Joined:Jan 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:38:54 AM Ignore Rhino8of8 Report Abuse Nice additional info, AmmoManAaron
Mr_Bill_W All-Star Author Virginia Posts:566 Points:356,010 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:38:36 AM Ignore Mr_Bill_W Report Abuse What seems to be absent from the equation is what is the price of our rushing to embrace this new found panacea purportedly for all our petroleum and gas woes? What will the cost be in town terms of impact on the fona and flora of those areas where the extraction of shale oil takes place? The environmental and human costs and impacts are largely unknown and speculative at best, accordingly due caution and prudent restraint must be completed exercised as moves in this direction come to pass...
BumpinButch Champion Author Texas Posts:1,586 Points:505,300 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:31:44 AM Ignore BumpinButch Report Abuse SHALE FOR SELL SALE!
drillintheUSA All-Star Author Rochester Posts:857 Points:178,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:31:32 AM Ignore drillintheUSA Report Abuse So what. FRACK now! This is nothing new. We've only been Fracking since 1949: HELLO! Stop looking at the 'Half Full' as 'Half Empty' you chicken littles!! ~ drillintheUSA / FRACKintheUSA.now [Edited by: drillintheUSA at 2/24/2013 10:32:01 AM EST]
Chadgas All-Star Author Missouri Posts:958 Points:2,170,700 Joined:Feb 2006	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:30:05 AM Ignore Chadgas Report Abuse Re-frac.
Chas58 All-Star Author Detroit Posts:948 Points:281,195 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:29:40 AM Ignore Chas58 Report Abuse Spent 20 minutes reading this and am not any more informed.
trekmanKY Champion Author Kentucky Posts:1,080 Points:355,210 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:29:33 AM Ignore trekmanKY Report Abuse Ohkay!
KhelbenArunson Champion Author Michigan Posts:4,425 Points:713,865 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:29:29 AM Ignore KhelbenArunson Report Abuse Ok
WeasleyOC Champion Author Orange County Posts:3,129 Points:798,325 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:28:39 AM Ignore WeasleyOC Report Abuse It should be good while it lasts.
OnABudget1 All-Star Author Salinas Posts:524 Points:444,320 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:28:23 AM Ignore OnABudget1 Report Abuse Interesting
mst150 Champion Author Detroit Posts:1,214 Points:155,855 Joined:Dec 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:27:14 AM Ignore mst150 Report Abuse A very interesting take on this subject ...
Mariuxus Champion Author Chicago Posts:3,740 Points:1,867,065 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:26:13 AM Ignore Mariuxus Report Abuse So...
Don20 Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:9,652 Points:2,615,630 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:22:51 AM Ignore Don20 Report Abuse Well lets wait and see. in the mean time extract all you can. In other word make hay while the sun shines..
dcoxdcox44 All-Star Author New Hampshire Posts:617 Points:197,960 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:22:39 AM Ignore dcoxdcox44 Report Abuse Wow, no one here is complaining about gas prices or accusing this of another reason to manipulate prices! What is wrong with you guys?
Rick01 Champion Author Utah Posts:8,997 Points:2,358,575 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:22:34 AM Ignore Rick01 Report Abuse And when the bedrock is turned into sand and we cannot drink the water, then what???
WilW Champion Author Atlanta Posts:12,202 Points:2,668,880 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:22:19 AM Ignore WilW Report Abuse Hey Mildred! Ain't we got a Shale station on the corner?
findcheap Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:9,577 Points:2,005,875 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:21:54 AM Ignore findcheap Report Abuse Wrecking landscape for 15 years reward?
MrLuigi Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:4,753 Points:962,685 Joined:Jun 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:21:50 AM Ignore MrLuigi Report Abuse just about everything has pro's/con's......make the best of it
pbalmeo All-Star Author Los Angeles Posts:870 Points:183,340 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:20:11 AM Ignore pbalmeo Report Abuse Get it while you can.
Caribou2011 Champion Author Ohio Posts:3,746 Points:764,835 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:19:36 AM Ignore Caribou2011 Report Abuse ATime to live for the now, tomorrow is always uncertain.
Blue_Cruzer Champion Author Lexington Posts:7,505 Points:1,666,660 Joined:Mar 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:17:42 AM Ignore Blue_Cruzer Report Abuse Make hay while the sun shines.
lindact Champion Author New Haven Posts:8,716 Points:1,712,970 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:17:00 AM Ignore lindact Report Abuse Bad long term repercussions for a short term fix.
Hugo40 Champion Author Kentucky Posts:7,609 Points:1,613,980 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:15:53 AM Ignore Hugo40 Report Abuse There are always downsides to everything.
jimmy544 Champion Author Boston Posts:4,074 Points:649,855 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:15:38 AM Ignore jimmy544 Report Abuse The only answer is to move on while this window exists there is no long term future to petroleum powered world.
tekguy All-Star Author Pittsburgh Posts:662 Points:1,101,045 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:15:24 AM Ignore tekguy Report Abuse Interesting article.
Wizrd03 Champion Author Illinois Posts:8,132 Points:1,628,335 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:15:13 AM Ignore Wizrd03 Report Abuse Interesting
LKnight598 All-Star Author South Carolina Posts:797 Points:184,015 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:13:15 AM Ignore LKnight598 Report Abuse Interesting...
drawee Champion Author Texas Posts:2,285 Points:444,060 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:13:04 AM Ignore drawee Report Abuse old news
matthwbar Champion Author Toledo Posts:4,043 Points:1,013,805 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:13:00 AM Ignore matthwbar Report Abuse Oh my..!
LuthierKS Champion Author Wichita Posts:3,725 Points:725,930 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:11:21 AM Ignore LuthierKS Report Abuse Interesting article.
neptune2008 Champion Author Michigan Posts:8,557 Points:1,665,930 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:07:46 AM Ignore neptune2008 Report Abuse no means no
CorvairHaven Champion Author Cleveland Posts:4,339 Points:1,450,165 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Feb 24, 2013 10:06:58 AM Ignore CorvairHaven Report Abuse I wondered about the longevity.