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Gas Cars Could Get 74 M.P.G. by 2035, Researcher Says

New York TImes -- A new report from a University of Michigan researcher estimates that, even without going electric, U.S. cars and trucks could achieve an average efficiency of 74 miles per gallon by 2035. Compared to a federal 2005 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) baseline, that’s a tripling of fuel economy.

Under the researcher’s fuel economy projections, the average car in 2035 would save 5,254 gallons over its lifetime compared to a similar 2005 vehicle, and would emit 47 tons less carbon dioxide.

The report, commissioned by the Energy Foundation, is by John DeCicco, a senior lecturer at the University of Michigan and a former auto policy expert at the Environmental Defense Fund.

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Submitted Sep 04, 2010 By: BurntOrange

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sluggopyle Champion Author North Carolina Posts:21,446 Points:1,033,310 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 12:38:05 PM Ignore sluggopyle Report Abuse => If you mean offering large cars and trucks the public is demanding, then I agree with your statement. <= Not quite what I mean, but feel free to agree. And I agree that when we stop buying them they'll stop making them- but my point was that we are complicit in this whole scam by not being more discriminating and obediently lapping up whatever they put in our dog dish. Let's not suffer any illusions about who is in the driver's seat ("the public is demanding"). That's a transparent excuse worthy of a sleazy politician. We the people never made commercials touting ridiculous ideas like SUVs. THEY did. We never "demanded" squat. We bent over and took them. THEY sell to US, not the other way around.
gvan Champion Author Chicago Posts:17,820 Points:2,374,560 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 9:59:35 AM Ignore gvan Report Abuse "So yes, the car companies have been keeping mileage down for their own short-term profit." If you mean offering large cars and trucks the public is demanding, then I agree with your statement. When consumers stop buying these vehicles (domestic as well as foreign)the manufacturers will stop offering them. However, they do have to meet the 35 mpg average by 2016. You are dwelling on the large vehicles but what about the new vehicles arriving on the scene i.e. Chevy Cruze, Chevy Spark, Ford Fiesta, etc.? Or the 2011 Ford Explorer, GMC Terrain, Chevy Equinox and Buick LaCrosse with a 4 cylinder engine available?
gvan Champion Author Chicago Posts:17,820 Points:2,374,560 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 9:49:45 AM Ignore gvan Report Abuse "But then, to most Americans, a 4-cylinder vehicle is equivalent to "no power, lousy car." Well, I guess lugging 4 people at 350 lbs it would be..." The American public will have to get used to it if we are to achieve 35 mpg average by 2016. The first warning shots.....2010 Buick LaCrosse offering a four cylinder engine and the 2011 Ford Explorer offering a four cylinder engine.
vandamme Champion Author New York Posts:1,021 Points:118,085 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 9:43:04 AM Ignore vandamme Report Abuse "We need to fine a viable replacement for the internal combustion engine. I don't know if we can do much more to signifacantly increase it's efficency. " Vehicles are systems. Engine efficiency is just one of the factors, along with weight, wind resistance, and the interaction of drive train and engine controls. The efficiency of engines presently is low anyhow; they are designed for low cost, driveability and especially passing emissions tests. Gas is too cheap and americans too rich and used to luxo boats for anybody to get serious.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:15,290 Points:1,146,200 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 6:14:27 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse European and Asian car manufacturers have been much ahead of the American curve. They already use all sorts of technology to produce high efficient engines and high mpg without loss of power. But then, to most Americans, a 4-cylinder vehicle is equivalent to "no power, lousy car." Well, I guess lugging 4 people at 350 lbs it would be...
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:15,290 Points:1,146,200 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 6:04:49 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse As for the MPG, we know that CAFE is a lousy system. It does not accurately reflect MPG, but takes unrealistic driving situations and extrapolates from the small data results.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:15,290 Points:1,146,200 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Sep 7, 2010 6:03:00 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse sluggopyle: Excellent reply! Yes, Americans have gone away from efficiency for "bigger, fatter and who cares how little mpg it gets b/c gas is cheap in the US."
POLELANE Champion Author Ohio Posts:7,148 Points:828,370 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Sep 6, 2010 5:26:33 PM Ignore POLELANE Report Abuse if a researcher or scientist said it; it must be so; eh?
BCweatherman All-Star Author British Columbia Posts:738 Points:806,330 Joined:May 2009	Message Posted: Sep 6, 2010 5:12:32 PM Ignore BCweatherman Report Abuse Gee, I'll be in my early 90's by 2035; hope I can still drive!
PeteOhki Veteran Author Honolulu Posts:309 Points:307,750 Joined:Mar 2010	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 6:35:07 PM Ignore PeteOhki Report Abuse @sluggopyle: Wow. I appreciate and agree with your point. Also, the gas mileage of the new cars (at least the ones I am interested in) keeps getting less and less each year. However, I am at a position that I would instead look 40-90 years back and say, "Aww Man! Not the rolling boats AGAIN!"
my2002m Champion Author Tulsa Posts:3,799 Points:1,208,645 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 5:10:33 PM Ignore my2002m Report Abuse There are cars sold in Europe today that get this kind of mileage. It should be achievable long before 2035.
Jeff4U Champion Author Atlanta Posts:5,990 Points:1,389,570 Joined:Nov 2004	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 1:51:57 PM Ignore Jeff4U Report Abuse Everyone has a crystal ball. Which ones work the best?
dacofa Champion Author Nevada Posts:3,231 Points:697,485 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 1:27:13 PM Ignore dacofa Report Abuse So what, and the price of a gal will be $20.
pulpwood Champion Author Mississippi Posts:5,631 Points:1,498,750 Joined:Sep 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 1:10:33 PM Ignore pulpwood Report Abuse Maybe?
sluggopyle Champion Author North Carolina Posts:21,446 Points:1,033,310 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 12:13:58 PM Ignore sluggopyle Report Abuse => logic dictates that if the Acme car company made a hummer like vehicle that got 70MPG, they couldn't build them fast enough, so why would they hide the fact that it's possible, when it would bring them a huge market share. But I guess logic and common sense are rare attributes now days. <= Logic would dictate that, yes. But profit motives of selling SUVs and endless streams of pickup trucks riding around empty make more money for the manufacturer. Obviously this demonstrates which of the two (practicality and profit) are valued by car corporations. There was a time when these companies were, in response to public demand, making more sense in their designs. But once the public consciousness went back to sleep, out came the automotive steroids with ridiculous bulk, little by little, and the efficiency motive went down the tubes. Just watch any movie that was shot 20-30 years ago and scan the size of the cars people are driving, and compare it to today. It's alarming. I've got a 17-year-old Saturn still gives me 40-50 mpg and is half the size of the modern bloated bathtub. Try to find such a car now. It's because We the Sheeple have just sucked up whatever swill they have put out there, and we let them get away with it, because we're all drooling over the rustic Marlboro Man taking the ole truck out to the cliff and doing handbrake turns in the sunset with the wheels rolling backward, sold by the line that this here truck will tow an asteroid. What were we thinking? I've seen hookers with better sales pitches. So yes, the car companies have been keeping mileage down for their own short-term profit. By the way, why would you WANT a Hummer, even if it did get 70 mpg? What practical use is a design like that? [Edited by: sluggopyle at 9/5/2010 12:15:37 PM EST]
PathfinderSC Champion Author South Carolina Posts:7,183 Points:1,369,840 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 11:18:41 AM Ignore PathfinderSC Report Abuse Cars & trucks could get better than they do now.
Lugi1967 Champion Author Ohio Posts:2,605 Points:547,595 Joined:Jun 2010	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 10:15:49 AM Ignore Lugi1967 Report Abuse Sooner the better
BBopp Champion Author Dayton Posts:5,054 Points:1,598,925 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 10:04:47 AM Ignore BBopp Report Abuse Why wait? 74 mpg sounds like a fantasy, but one I would willing support.
cheapertvs Champion Author Richmond Posts:7,866 Points:2,278,720 Joined:Jan 2004	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 10:02:00 AM Ignore cheapertvs Report Abuse I would imagine we will have moved away from fossil fuel powered cars by then.
BEngr Champion Author Illinois Posts:4,288 Points:1,120,105 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:37:43 AM Ignore BEngr Report Abuse This pure speculation and I really don't think that gas mileage can be improved that much by 2035.
2granny Champion Author Michigan Posts:7,165 Points:1,003,280 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:29:04 AM Ignore 2granny Report Abuse I don't believe it.
Cuzilla Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:10,658 Points:1,972,360 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:25:30 AM Ignore Cuzilla Report Abuse Why do we need to find a suitable replacement for the internal combustion engine?
stevencr Champion Author Ohio Posts:3,312 Points:970,610 Joined:Mar 2009	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:22:32 AM Ignore stevencr Report Abuse We need to fine a viable replacement for the internal combustion engine. I don't know if we can do much more to signifacantly increase it's efficency.
my3sons Champion Author New York Posts:4,455 Points:1,506,535 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:21:20 AM Ignore my3sons Report Abuse it would be nice if they did that now
gptrk All-Star Author Detroit Posts:667 Points:734,800 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:21:16 AM Ignore gptrk Report Abuse Not going to happen if we all want a big engine to burn rubber down the freeways.
cableman31 Champion Author New York Posts:6,594 Points:1,572,345 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:19:40 AM Ignore cableman31 Report Abuse More projection BS. If it will come in 2035 why can't it come in 2015. It could have also come in 1990.
Kato51 Champion Author Atlanta Posts:5,352 Points:1,775,350 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:17:40 AM Ignore Kato51 Report Abuse I don't buy into one word of this. They can say anything they want regarding what will be 25 years down the road and who can challenge?
nerde Champion Author Florida Posts:3,911 Points:860,550 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:17:32 AM Ignore nerde Report Abuse How about NO GAS CARS at all by 2035?
Cuzilla Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:10,658 Points:1,972,360 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:16:04 AM Ignore Cuzilla Report Abuse Yes, in a lab maybe! This is a NYTimes article. Everyone knows they are whores for the Eco-Nazi-Green Movement! This is a propaganda piece. DuPont COULD make a silk purse out of sows ears but is that practical?!
RamboOn66 Champion Author Tampa Posts:3,097 Points:1,440,990 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:15:04 AM Ignore RamboOn66 Report Abuse Researchers and their "crystal balls".
bama56 Champion Author Alabama Posts:1,860 Points:966,820 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:10:55 AM Ignore bama56 Report Abuse they could do that now
101Speedster Champion Author Ventura Posts:25,613 Points:2,331,940 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:10:38 AM Ignore 101Speedster Report Abuse Time to switch to solar, wind and other types of renewable energy. It's time for the United States to become energy independent. We will all be driving electric cars by then.
Tonester1 Champion Author New Jersey Posts:10,390 Points:1,863,735 Joined:Oct 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:10:01 AM Ignore Tonester1 Report Abuse In 25 years nobody will remember they said that so they can say anything they want at this point.... so what's the point?
nozzle46 Champion Author Little Rock Posts:4,886 Points:1,100,480 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:09:59 AM Ignore nozzle46 Report Abuse You just know if mfgs could keep squeezing more horsepower out of the same fuel economy over the last decade, the reverse is true. They could squeeze more fuel economy while decreasing horsepower. No car needs 200 or 300+ horsepower like some outrageous models get.
throttle Champion Author Maryland Posts:10,431 Points:2,158,070 Joined:Jul 2004	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:09:54 AM Ignore throttle Report Abuse It's always easy to forecast 25 years in the future.
Bajabugster Veteran Author New Mexico Posts:310 Points:107,800 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:09:45 AM Ignore Bajabugster Report Abuse Funny how people think the car companies are suppressing ways to increase MPG, logic dictates that if the Acme car company made a hummer like vehicle that got 70MPG, they couldn't build them fast enough, so why would they hide the fact that it's possible, when it would bring them a huge market share. But I guess logic and common sense are rare attributes now days.
goodbuy Champion Author Michigan Posts:5,524 Points:995,710 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:08:02 AM Ignore goodbuy Report Abuse Yea, yea, yea. And in 2036 we will be flying around like the Jetsons.
CharlieC08 Champion Author Colorado Posts:6,404 Points:1,156,150 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:07:57 AM Ignore CharlieC08 Report Abuse Depends on what you call a car.
bicycler Champion Author Ontario Posts:12,707 Points:2,210,320 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:06:44 AM Ignore bicycler Report Abuse will be nice, but i will not be here
rtw777 Champion Author Florida Posts:7,053 Points:1,379,350 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:05:31 AM Ignore rtw777 Report Abuse What a stupid article. Nobody wants to wait 25 years. Besides, by that time something better will have come around and oil products not nearly as necessary.
Bajabugster Veteran Author New Mexico Posts:310 Points:107,800 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:04:22 AM Ignore Bajabugster Report Abuse Pogue carburetor, are you serious, that just a myth, just like the claim you can run your car on water. I guess some people will believe anything.
katmandue Champion Author Detroit Posts:5,764 Points:1,680,040 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:04:20 AM Ignore katmandue Report Abuse Oil isn't just used for fuel but for plastics, rubber and other chemicals as well.
RoadManJimC Champion Author Chico Posts:1,231 Points:181,340 Joined:Aug 2010	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:04:17 AM Ignore RoadManJimC Report Abuse Don't you love it when 'Experts, predict something 25 Years down the road', so to speak? That way... they won't feel stupid for a quarter century or so? :)
rjd1608 Champion Author Toledo Posts:3,024 Points:1,467,980 Joined:Aug 2003	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:03:45 AM Ignore rjd1608 Report Abuse ok
WonderfulMI Champion Author Michigan Posts:9,047 Points:1,324,780 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:00:32 AM Ignore WonderfulMI Report Abuse Not id the super-patriotic "Oil Party" gets control of the government!
MUSTANGSRUS Champion Author Ontario Posts:7,394 Points:1,510,045 Joined:Sep 2006	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:00:29 AM Ignore MUSTANGSRUS Report Abuse Unfortunately I won't live long enough to see if that becomes a reality.
oilrobber Champion Author Miami Posts:7,307 Points:1,471,285 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 9:00:08 AM Ignore oilrobber Report Abuse I have been saying that they could have done this many years ago. I also think favors and other tactics have played into not improving mileage.
weenerdog Champion Author Detroit Posts:7,352 Points:1,442,470 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 8:59:38 AM Ignore weenerdog Report Abuse sounds doubtful
Bajabugster Veteran Author New Mexico Posts:310 Points:107,800 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 8:59:30 AM Ignore Bajabugster Report Abuse Another stupid report that assumes everything will remain the same over the next 20 years. In my entire life, I have never seen so many reports by experts and analysts predicting how things will be in the future, well, I'm still waiting for my flying car that was promised to me by experts 50 years ago.
pnd1 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:4,278 Points:860,070 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Sep 5, 2010 8:56:43 AM Ignore pnd1 Report Abuse Sounds good, but let human initiative take over instead of a government mandate.